Dades generals

Curs acadèmic:
2017
Descripció:
In this course students will understand the importance of forecasting for the startup and management of a new business, especially sales prediction. They will acquire competences in the selection and application of statistical forecasting methods and graphics suitable for each case. Qualitative forecasting is also extensively covered.
Crèdits:
3

Grups

Grup A

Durada:
Semestral, 2n semestre
Professorat:
GERMÀ COENDERS GALLART
Idioma de les classes:
Anglès (100%)

Competències

  • CG1 Comunicar i argumentar coneixements o decisions d'organització empresarial de forma oral o escrita, adaptant-se a diferents tipus d'auditoris.
  • CG2 Recollir i processar informació de tipus científic o professional sobre organitzacions empresarials, per desenvolupar nou coneixement o fonamentar decisions organitzatives.
  • CE3 Idear i desenvolupar solucions a situacions organitzatives complexes d'una forma sistemàtica i creativa, amb judicis raonables davant situacions d'incertesa.
  • CE4 Analitzar les necessitats i demandes dels clients per prendre decisions empresarials consistents.
  • CE7 Ser proactiu a reconèixer la necessitat de canvi i tenir l'habilitat per gestionar el canvi.

Continguts

1. Forecasting new ventures. Scenario Writing, the Lean Startup

2. Consumer surveys

3. Time Series Analysis and Classical Decomposition

4. The Delphi Method

Activitats

Tipus d’activitat Hores amb professor Hores sense professor Total
Classes expositives 12 0 12
Classes pràctiques 6 0 6
Elaboració de treballs 2 18 20
Prova d'avaluació 2 19 21
Resolució d'exercicis 0 10 10
Simulacions 4 2 6
Total 26 49 75

Bibliografia

  • Landeta, Jon (1999 ). El Método Delphi : una técnica de previsión para la incertidumbre . Barcelona: Ariel. Catàleg
  • Hanke, John E (2001 ). Business forecasting (7th ed.). Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall. Catàleg
  • Shim, Jae K (2000 ). Strategic business forecasting : the complete guide to forecasting real world company performance (Rev. ed). Boca Raton, Fla.: St. Lucie Press. Catàleg
  • Groves, Robert M. (cop. 2009 ). Survey methodology[Recurs electrònic] (2nd ed.). Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley. Recuperat 25-09-2014, a https://www.dawsonera.com/abstract/9781118627327 Catàleg
  • Ries, Eric (2011 ). The Lean startup : how today's entrepreneurs use continuous innovation to create radically successful businesses . New York: Crown Business. Catàleg
  • Osterwalder, Alexander (cop. 2010 ). Business model generation : a handbook for visionaries, game changers, and challengers . Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. Catàleg
  • Centre for Social Informatics, University of ljubljana (2016). EnKlikanketa [one-click survey]. Web survey freeware. Recuperat , a http://english.1ka.si/
  • Survey Research Methods. European Survey Research Association. Recuperat, a https://ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/
  • Ron S. Kenett, Silvia Salini (2012). Modern Analysis of Customer Surveys: With Applications Using R. Wiley. Catàleg

Avaluació i qualificació

Activitats d'avaluació:

Descripció de l'activitat Avaluació de l'activitat %
Time series exercises -Time series exercises with SPSS.

The exercises have to be solved individually and there is no second chance.

They have to be printed and brought to the classroom. All computer output has to be properly interpreted and discussed upon.
20
Written exam There is no second-chance exam. The exam will cover the content of the master classes, exercises, projects and readings. 40
Questionnaire design, test, and improvement This exercise has to be done in small groups of students. It consists of:
-Design of a questionnaire.
-Cognitive test of the questionnaire.
-Oral presentation in the classroom including: questionnaire objectives, initial design, cognitive test development, and changes and improvements following the test.

There is no second chance.
20
Delphi method simulation and role playing The classroom will be split into a group of experts and a group of forecasters. Prior to the session experts have to read on the forecast topic and forecasters have to prepare the Delphi questionnaire. During the session a mini-Delphi forecast will we made.

There is no second-chance evaluation.
20

Qualificació

To calculate the final grade, you need to obtain a mark above 4 in the written exam. Then the final mark will be the weighted average of the written exam grade and all other evaluation activities.

Criteris específics de la nota «No Presentat»:
If you do not attend to the exam or fail to do more than one third of the remaining activities you will get the mark "NO PRESENTAT".